Zimbabwe has raised its 2025 economic growth forecast, citing a robust tobacco harvest and a rally in international gold prices as key drivers. Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube outlined the revision during a mid-term fiscal policy update in Harare on Friday, noting that agriculture and mining are expected to provide a stronger-than-anticipated boost to gross domestic product.
The new forecast lifts projected GDP expansion to 4.8% from an earlier 3.5%. Ncube stressed that tobacco production, already one of Zimbabwe’s largest foreign currency earners has exceeded targets this year, while higher gold prices have bolstered export receipts and fiscal revenues. “These sectors remain the backbone of our recovery, cushioning us against external shocks,” he remarked in his address, as reported by Bloomberg.
Analysts at Reuters highlighted that gold output is projected to rise further in the second half of 2025, supported by increased production from both large-scale miners and artisanal operators. Meanwhile, tobacco exports have been buoyed by strong demand from Asia, particularly China, which continues to be Zimbabwe’s top buyer.
Despite the optimism, the government acknowledged persistent risks, including inflationary pressures, foreign exchange shortages, and electricity supply constraints. The World Bank has also cautioned that Zimbabwe’s reliance on a narrow range of commodities leaves it exposed to global price swings.
The upgraded outlook reflects the government’s efforts to balance near-term recovery with structural reforms, as it seeks to attract investment and stabilize macroeconomic fundamentals ahead of the 2028 election cycle.
