The world is on course for approximately 2.6°C of global warming by the end of the century, even if governments fulfil their existing climate pledges, according to the United Nations Environment Programme’s (UNEP) Emissions Gap Report 2026: The Point of Return, released on 21 October. The report warns that international efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions remain insufficient to meet the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement, which seeks to limit global warming to well below 2°C while pursuing efforts to keep it to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, ChannelsTv reported. Under current government policies, temperatures could rise by approximately 2.8°C by 2100. UN Secretary-General António Guterres said the world was falling dangerously short of its climate commitments, as greenhouse gas emissions remained near record levels.
The report highlights a widening gap between the emissions reductions required to limit climate risks and the cuts governments have committed to deliver. To achieve the lowest feasible overshoot of the 1.5°C threshold, global greenhouse gas emissions would need to fall by 18 per cent from 2025 levels by 2030, 45 per cent by 2035 and 69 per cent by 2040. Existing national climate plans, however, are projected to deliver reductions of only 5 to 8 per cent by 2030 and 11 to 15 per cent by 2035. UNEP says the world can no longer realistically prevent temperatures from exceeding 1.5°C, making the priority to limit the peak and duration of that overshoot and potentially return global temperatures to the threshold by 2100. Its lowest-overshoot scenario projects temperatures peaking at approximately 1.7°C to 1.8°C around mid-century, although achieving this pathway would require substantial emissions cuts and large-scale carbon dioxide removal.
The findings place additional pressure on governments ahead of the COP31 climate summit in Antalya, Türkiye, scheduled for November 2026. The report also identifies progress in renewable energy deployment and climate policies, demonstrating that emissions reductions are achievable, but warns that these advances have not yet brought global emissions onto a sufficiently steep downward trajectory. For African economies, the implications include mounting exposure to extreme heat, droughts, flooding and other climate-related disruptions, alongside the need to finance resilient infrastructure and expand access to cleaner energy. UNEP is calling for faster emissions reductions, stronger national climate commitments and increased financial support for developing countries. The central challenge is now not simply whether governments can meet existing targets, but whether they can implement deeper cuts quickly enough to reduce long-term climate damage.
