Nigeria’s oil revenue dropped by 43 percent in the first nine months of 2025 despite a rise in crude production, according to Channels Tv, underscoring persistent challenges in the country’s oil sector and fiscal stability.
Figures released by the apex bank showed that oil earnings fell to ₦3.47 trillion, down from ₦6.09 trillion during the same period in 2024. This decline occurred even as daily oil production rose to an average of 1.53 million barrels per day, compared to 1.28 million barrels per day last year.
Analysts attribute the revenue shortfall to reduced global oil prices, high production costs, and the continued impact of oil theft and pipeline vandalism in the Niger Delta. “While output is improving, Nigeria’s fiscal returns are being eroded by weaker prices and systemic leakages,” said KPMG Nigeria in a recent industry note.
The Federal Ministry of Finance also confirmed that non-oil revenues have become increasingly vital in offsetting losses from the petroleum sector, as the government intensifies diversification efforts through tax reforms and enhanced remittance collection.
According to data from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC), global oil market fluctuations, coupled with reduced demand from Europe and Asia, have weighed heavily on Nigeria’s export earnings.
Despite the slump, officials remain optimistic that ongoing refinery projects and improvements in domestic crude refining will gradually strengthen fiscal resilience in 2026.
