Nigeria’s downstream petroleum market is undergoing a historic shift as the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, Africa’s largest, has tightened its dominance, supplying an estimated 92 percent of the country’s petrol demand, according to industry data cited by Business Insider Africa.
The surge in market share follows the federal government’s decision to halt petrol import licenses, a move aimed at prioritizing local refining under the Petroleum Industry Act. As reported by Reuters, authorities deemed domestic supply sufficient, effectively sidelining importers and accelerating the refinery’s control of the market.
Data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority shows that local refineries supplied about 36.5 million litres per day in February, compared with just 3 million litres from imports, pushing domestic supply to roughly 92 percent of total consumption.
This marks a sharp evolution from earlier in 2026, when the Dangote refinery accounted for about 62 percent of petrol supply, highlighting the rapid scale-up of operations at the 650,000-barrel-per-day facility and its growing influence over pricing and distribution.
While the development significantly reduces Nigeria’s reliance on fuel imports and eases pressure on foreign exchange, analysts warn it also raises concerns about market concentration and pricing power, as a single refinery increasingly shapes supply dynamics in Africa’s largest oil-producing economy.
