Uganda’s finance ministry has revised its economic growth projection for the 2026 financial year to 6.5%–7.0%, down from the earlier forecast of 10.4%. The update reflects a more cautious assessment of near-term economic performance, while the country continues preparations to commence crude oil production in its western oilfields, Reuters reported.
The previous projection had anticipated a significant boost from the start of oil output, led by French firm TotalEnergies and China’s CNOOC. Officials confirmed that crude production is still scheduled to begin later this year, which remains central to Kampala’s long-term growth strategy, CNBC Africa noted.
While the government did not provide detailed reasons for the downward revision, analysts suggest the adjustment accounts for slower-than-expected investment inflows and domestic challenges that could temper immediate growth. The revised forecast underscores the economy’s vulnerability despite the forthcoming oil revenue, according to Marketscreener.
Economists said the update highlights the importance of economic diversification and structural reforms beyond hydrocarbons. Although oil production promises long-term fiscal benefits, Uganda faces the challenge of converting resource wealth into sustained, inclusive growth, a point emphasized by analysts monitoring the ministry’s announcement.
